Original Coverage & Source Attribution: www.globaltrademag.com
The World Trade Organization has sharply upgraded its projection for global merchandise trade expansion in 2026, lifting its estimate to 3.9% — more than twice its earlier figure — as surging artificial intelligence investment counterbalanced the effects of Middle East conflict.
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According to the Geneva-headquartered trade body, worldwide commerce advanced at a robust clip as supply chains adjusted and AI-related spending flowed in, delivering what it described as a powerful boost to goods trade.
The new number represents a major increase over the WTO’s spring estimate of 1.9% for merchandise trade growth, which does not include services. For the following year, the organization now anticipates 4.1% growth, compared with the 2.9% it projected in March.
The WTO stated that the upgrade reflects proof that global supply chains adjusted to turbulence in energy and fertilizer markets, while robust investment in AI-related infrastructure drove up trade in AI-enabling goods. Oil, gas and fertilizer trade through the Persian Gulf was disrupted after the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran started in February.
Merchandise trade rose 3.5% during the first half of the year, propelled by the artificial intelligence sector. Demand for AI-enabling products including semiconductors and servers represented 47% of worldwide merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, and trade in these goods climbed 67% year-on-year, speeding up from the already swift expansion recorded in 2024 and 2025.
Middle Eastern liquefied natural gas exports declined by 47% in the first half of the year, while crude oil exports fell by almost one-quarter. However, shipments from alternative suppliers helped contain the overall drop to approximately 1% for LNG and around 6% for crude.
The WTO said it anticipates global GDP growth of 2.6% this year and 2.9% in 2027, while also forecasting that the Middle East conflict will keep weighing on trade via elevated energy prices and interruptions to transport routes.
