Original Coverage & Source Attribution: neilpaine.substack.com
Happy Wednesday! October turns ruthless today, with all four MLB Division Series featuring an elimination game — the White Sox and Rays can sweep their way to the ALCS, while the Dodgers and Brewers get the chance to close things out in 4. Plus, the WNBA semifinals finally resume with Atlanta and Golden State trying to put the league’s old guard on the brink, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto is rapidly building one of the best postseason pitching résumés in baseball history. Here’s what we’re watching out for today:
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. = Elimination game
MLB:
ALDS: Guardians (48%) at White Sox (52%) – Game 3 (CWS leads 2-0), 4 p.m. (TBS)
NLDS: Dodgers (58%) at Braves (42%) – Game 4 (LAD leads 2-1), 6 p.m. (FS1) – Battle of the Tylers: Glasnow vs. Mahle
ALDS: Rays (40%) at Yankees (60%) – Game 3 (TB leads 2-0), 8 p.m. (TBS)
NLDS: Brewers (48%) at Padres (52%) – Game 4 (MIL leads 2-1), 10 p.m. (FS1)
World Series title check-in: Dodgers 37% to win
WNBA:
Semifinals: Liberty (47%) at Dream (53%) – Game 2 (ATL leads 1-0), 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
Semifinals: Aces (47%) at Valkyries (53%) – Game 2 (GSV leads 1-0), 9:30 p.m. (Peacock)
WNBA title check-in: Dream 34% to win
NHL:
Penguins (41%) at Capitals (59%) – 7:30 p.m. (TNT) – The final season of Crosby vs. Ovechkin
Avalanche (63%) at Jets (37%) – 7:30 p.m.
Oilers (55%) at Ducks (45%) – 10 p.m.
Stanley Cup check-in: Avalanche 13% to win
Football:
CFB: Jacksonville State (58%) at Kennesaw State (42%) – 7 p.m.
CFB: New Mexico State (31%) at FIU (69%) – 7:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Super Bowl check-in: Rams 13% to win NFL title
College Football Playoff check-in: Ohio State 18% to win national title
Soccer:
Brasileirão: São Paulo (21%) at Cruzeiro (54%) – 8:30 p.m.
Champions League title check-in: FC Barcelona 27% to win
Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 62% to win
MLS title check-in: Vancouver Whitecaps FC 24% to win MLS Cup
NWSL title check-in: Gotham FC 28% to win
NBA:
Preseason action (regular season starts 10/20)
NBA title check-in: Thunder/Spurs 23% to win
W(elcome) back, again
Seemingly no league does long, momentum-killing breaks like the WNBA, so of course the league took a 3-day hiatus in the middle of the busiest stretch on the sports calendar. But now, the W will resume the postseason tonight with both semifinal series in action — as Atlanta and Golden State look to build upon their respective Game 1 victories over New York and Las Vegas.
If so, it would represent another sea-change in the established order of the league. On one side, the Aces and/or Liberty have won each of the past four WNBA titles, meeting for the championship in the 2023 Finals — when they were both among the highest-rated WNBA teams of all-time according to the Elo ratings. Oh, and they also boast 7 of the past 8 WNBA MVPs in the form of A’ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones — and Wilson is 98% to win this year’s MVP as well, which would make it 8 of the past 9.
In other words, Las Vegas and New York are WNBA royalty. The Dream, meanwhile, have never won a championship in 19 seasons of existence — the closest they came was losing 3 Finals in 4 years from 2010-13 — and they’ve never had an MVP, either. And the Valkyries literally didn’t even exist 2 years ago.
And yet, here we are. The market odds list the Dream and Valkyries as clear favorites No. 1-2 to win the title, and the most likely pair to meet in the Finals by far:
In a lot of ways, that’s just the power of a home win to tip of a WNBA playoff series — being up 1-0 with home-court advantage is a good place to be. But there’s also the matter of the season-long stats, where the Valkyries and Dream were higher-rated than the Aces or Liberty by metrics like schedule-adjusted PPG differential and the Elo ratings. Basketball is notorious for those types of indicators mattering less in the playoffs than you might think, in the face of playoff experience and star-power, so it is a bit surprising that Atlanta and Golden State have scored wins for the regular-season early in these series.
But maybe the Dream and Valks have more going for them than the basic indicators as well. Atlanta’s four-headed monster of Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, Jordin Canada and Angel Reese was responsible for 27.2 wins all by themselves (according to the LAKER ratings), which is the definition of a top-heavy star-driven squad. (Gray, it should be noted, will miss Game 2 of the semis.) And while Golden State relied more on depth — usually a telltale sign for teams that might play below their regular-season bona fides in the playoffs — they also had the league’s most valuable player not named “A’ja Wilson” in the form of Veronica Burton. And in the playoffs, Gabby Williams (+13.0 LAKER) has played like she belongs on that same level, albeit in just a 4-game sample.
For the Valkyries, that still may not be enough to stave off Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young and the rest of the Aces’ big names forever. And with Gray out, the pressure is on the rest of the Dream’s top stars — plus names like DeWanna Bonner, who had 23 points and 9 rebounds in Game 1 — to hold the line against the dangerous Liberty. (Just ask the Lynx, whose special season was wrecked by NY in the span of 3 days.) But if Atlanta and Golden State can do it again tonight, what began as a couple of Game 1 surprises will start looking a lot more like a full-blown changing of the WNBA guard.
Yoshi’s Island
With their season in just about as much peril as it’s been for all of 2026, the Dodgers turned to Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Tuesday’s NLDS Game 3 — and Yamamoto continued to make October his own personal playground. Outdueling opposing Atlanta ace Chris Sale for the W, Yamamoto struck out a postseason-career-high 10 batters over 7 innings, allowing 1 run, 4 hits and 1 walk as the Dodgers took a 2-1 series lead. Yamamoto now owns a sparkling 8-1 record, 2.14 ERA and 0.83 WHIP across 63 career postseason innings, and his average playoff Game Score (a metric that distills starting-pitcher performance down to a single number on a rough 0-100 scale) of 63 is the 7th-highest in MLB history among pitchers with at least 10 starts:
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
“Lane Johnson was the Great Wall of Philadelphia” by Jeremy Keys
“The Raiders Are (Maybe) Good Again. But They’ll Never Be the Raiders Again.” by Michael Weinreb
“Kalen DeBoer’s Pass Attack” by Bobby Peters
“Two GOATs retire: One expected, one not” by Tyler Lauletta
“Game Day Journal: Sunday Night Football – Panthers on SNF for the first time in… forever” by FootballJo
Next on deck…
Thursday (10/8)
Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers at Cowboys
CFB: South Florida at UTSA
MLB Playoffs: Guardians at White Sox, ALDS Game 4 (if necessary)
MLB Playoffs: Rays at Yankees, ALDS Game 4 (if necessary)
WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
NHL: Maple Leafs at Golden Knights
UEFA Nations League: France vs. Belgium
Golf: Baycurrent Classic, Round 1
Friday (10/9)
CFB: Florida State at Louisville
CFB: Iowa at Washington
MLB Playoffs: Braves at Dodgers, NLDS Game 5 (if necessary)
MLB Playoffs: Padres at Brewers, NLDS Game 5 (if necessary)
WNBA Playoffs: Dream at Liberty, Semifinals Game 3
WNBA Playoffs: Valkyries at Aces, Semifinals Game 3
NHL: Rangers at Capitals
UEFA Nations League: Italy vs. Belarus
Golf: Baycurrent Classic, Round 2
Saturday (10/10)
CFB: #2 Georgia at #6 Alabama
CFB: #21 UCLA at #13 Oregon
CFB: #1 Texas vs. Oklahoma
CFB: #7 Indiana vs. Nebraska
MLB Playoffs: White Sox at Guardians, ALDS Game 5 (if necessary)
MLB Playoffs: Yankees at Rays, ALDS Game 5 (if necessary)
WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
NHL: Maple Leafs at Avalanche
Premier League: Tottenham Hotspur at Manchester United
Golf: Baycurrent Classic, Round 3
Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.
