Original Coverage & Source Attribution: neilpaine.substack.com
Happy Tuesday! College basketball is officially back this week, and Monday’s opening-night contests already gave us a little bit of everything — from top squads taking care of business, to a few ranked-team scraps, and East Texas A&M somehow beating Oklahoma in Norman as a 28.5-point underdog. We’ll sort through what mattered (and what probably didn’t) below. Plus, Harry Kane can tie Cristiano Ronaldo’s Champions League scoring-streak record in today’s Bayern-Atlético match — part of a full slate of soccer that gives us a number of name-brand clubs in action — and the first CFP rankings arrive tonight. Here’s what we’re watching today:
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. = Elimination game
Football:
CFB: Ohio (84%) at Akron (16%) – 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
CFB: Buffalo (31%) at Miami (OH) (69%) – 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Super Bowl check-in: 49ers 17% to win the NFL title
College Football Playoff check-in: Georgia 23% to win the national title
NBA:
No games today. (Election Day)
NBA title check-in: Spurs 21% to win
NHL:
Avalanche (55%) at Blue Jackets (45%) – 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
Golden Knights (51%) at Penguins (49%) – 7 p.m.
Oilers (41%) at Devils (59%) – 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
Hurricanes (65%) at Predators (35%) – 8 p.m.
Stanley Cup check-in: Hurricanes/Avalanche 11% to win
Soccer:
Champions League: Galatasaray (47%) vs. VfB Stuttgart (31%) – 12:45 p.m. (Paramount+)
Champions League: Paris Saint-Germain (57%) at Villarreal (22%) – 3 p.m. (Paramount+)
Champions League: Bayern Munich (41%) at Atlético Madrid (35%) – 3 p.m. (Paramount+)
Champions League: Aston Villa (11%) at Barcelona (78%) – 3 p.m. (Paramount+)
Champions League check-in: FC Barcelona 23% to win
Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 72% to win
Europa League check-in: SL Benfica 19% to win
MLS title check-in: Nashville SC 21% to win MLS Cup (playoffs start Wednesday, 11/19)
NWSL title check-in: Gotham FC 23% to win (playoffs start Friday, 11/6)
College Basketball:
Wofford (1%) at #8 Tennessee (99%) – 6 p.m. (SECN)
Manhattan at #23 Kentucky – 7 p.m. (SECN)
Drexel at #9 Virginia – 7:30 p.m. (ACCN)
Sam Houston at #20 Alabama – 7:30 p.m. (SECN+)
UAPB at #12 Arkansas – 8 p.m. (SECN+)
March Madness check-in: Duke 16% to win the national title
Opening statements
You can really tell that it’s a changing time in the sports calendar when you ponder that the World Series and WNBA Finals ended mere days before the official start of college basketball season this week. Truly, when the Sports Gods close a door, they open a window.
On Monday, we got to see 20 of the AP preseason men’s Top 25 teams in action, with the remaining 5 (Tennessee, Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky) getting their first games in today:
Mostly, that brought wins to the nation’s top men’s squads, generally against inferior opponents in warm-ups to start the year. But there were still a few ranked matchups of note from Monday.
Top-ranked Florida survived No. 14 Miami 77-67 in Tampa, with Player of the Year Award frontrunner Thomas Haugh putting up 19 points and 10 rebounds. The bigger surprise came in Las Vegas, where No. 22 UCLA knocked off No. 5 Arizona 84-75 behind 21 points from Trent Perry — spoiling a huge 38-point, 10-rebound night from Arizona’s Ivan Kharchenkov.
Also of note: Unranked Memphis upset #18 Iowa State in Sioux Falls, SD, #15 Gonzaga barely held off Purdue in Vegas, and East Texas A&M stunned Oklahoma as 28.5-point underdogs in Norman. OU was 99% likely to win the game beforehand per Kalshi:
We are, of course, 132 days away from Selection Sunday — there’s a LOT of basketball left to be played. But inevitably, these opening results probably will matter at least some at the margins when the Selection Committee is agonizing over which teams to seed where — or slot into the bracket versus leave out in the cold — especially when considering that more teams will be in play for the tourney in Year 1 of its 76-team bracket era. (Yes, that’s a thing now, part of CBB’s chaotic current reality.) Yes, the national-title market is still mostly pricing the season off of its priors…
…but good luck getting too attached to any of that. By the time the bracket actually gets filled out in March, all of us will have learned just how wrong some of those priors were.
Raising Kane
It’s been The Year of Harry Kane in 2026, with the English striker winning his first Ballon d’Or after a 73-goal season for club and country. And today’s UEFA Champions League action brings another opportunity to add his name to the record books: Kane is currently riding a 10-match goal-scoring streak in the Champions League for Bayern Munich, sitting just one game away from tying Cristiano Ronaldo’s all-time record of 11 consecutive matches, set for Real Madrid in 2017-18. Bayern faces Atlético Madrid at 3 p.m. with Kane having a consensus 50% implied probability for an anytime goal according to the markets.
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
“Lamar Jackson’s last game as a Raven? The breakup talk is getting way ahead of itself” by Charles Robinson
“The Bears bet on Jeffery Simmons shows early returns” by Tyler Lauletta
“College Basketball Returns to the Court After Chaotic Offseason” by Amanda Christovich
“Oregon State football was left for dead. Now, it’s thriving” by Craig Meyer
“Are Sports an Art or a Science?” by Jett Hatch
Next on deck…
Wednesday (11/4)
CFB: Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan
NBA: Timberwolves at Rockets
NHL: Blackhawks at Panthers
Champions League: RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City
CBB: SE Louisiana at Auburn
Thursday (11/5)
Thursday Night Football: Jaguars at Ravens
CFB: JMU at Southern Miss
NBA: Heat at Warriors
NHL: Bruins at Penguins
Europa League: Marseille at Bayer Leverkusen
CBB: Wake Forest at #24 Vanderbilt
Friday (11/6)
CFB: TCU at #24 Arizona
NBA: 76ers at Cavaliers
NHL: Sharks at Wild
NWSL Quarterfinal: #7 Utah at #2 San Diego
CBB: #4 UConn vs. #16 Michigan
Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.
